Want insights on the performance of D2C, eCommerce brands in the US & India during COVID lockdowns?
Visit Our Markets Data

How PipeCandy delivers the industry's best estimates for online revenue of eCommerce companies

Ashwini Murthy
Ashwini Murthy
Jan 31, 2018
Min Read

Estimating the revenue of an e-commerce company isn’t really difficult. Estimating the eCommerce revenue with a high degree of accuracy where the real difficulty lies. Estimating the revenue with a high degree of accuracy when you have zilch internal data about the e-commerce company available is a Herculean task. At PipeCandy, that’s what we’re doing apart from a hundred other similar tasks.

Being an industry focused predictive marketing platform, we bring the rigor of machine learning models and the depth of data to deliver 'never before precision' in estimating online revenue of eCommerce companies. Data is never clean in practice and data sets that point to industry nuances are hardly public. This is where deploying the right analytical models to fill the gaps in data matters. It's never a simple model. It's always an ensemble - one to mine texts on pages to understand shipping maturity, another to understand price positioning and a different one to assess omni-channel maturity. The culmination of the ensemble model deployment and unique data sets results in 'high precision' estimates of revenue, even for long tail companies that form the majority of global eCommerce landscape.

We’ve already talked about the basics of guessing an e-commerce company’s revenue. The formula is simple: Sales revenue = Number of transactions x Average transaction value Average transaction value Average transaction value, a.k.a., Average Order Value (AOV) = Average product price x Average basket size. Let’s say you have 5 pieces of clothing in your shopping cart (Basket size), and the average product price is $20, then, the transaction value is 5x20 = $100.Average product price and Average basket size differ from one category to the other. For example, from a fast fashion brand, an average consumer buys around 3-4 items in one transaction. But for a high-end luxury brand, the average basket size is usually 1 item. At PipeCandy, we analyzed a few thousand websites to develop the baseline of our eCommerce revenue model. Let’s deconstruct how we went about it (without revealing a lot, that is!)A simple formula for arriving at the number of transactions in a website will be, Number of transactions =Conversion rate x Traffic (No. of unique visitors to the website)Conversion rates are easy to come across (relatively speaking), thanks to benchmark reports released by companies like Monetate. However they lose utility when you start looking at conversion rates at sub-category level (for example, men’s watches convert at different rate than women’s handbags. But most benchmarks would lump them into one category called ‘accessories’).At PipeCandy, we took average conversion rates for each industry, did sample surveys and baseline data validation exercises with some of our customers and populated our datasets with the help of machine learning models that accounted for more than a couple of dozen variables that had statistically significant impact on conversion rates and basket size. Let’s say the average conversion rate for apparel industry is 1.6%. It’s not going to be the same for apparel companies in all revenue ranges. Given the average conversion rate ‘x’, Conversion rates for top 10% (90-99th percentile) and top 25% (75th to 100th percentile) of the traffic would be very different from the bottom quartile. See the graph below to understand what we mean (the conversion rates plotted are for illustrative purposes only)

online-revenue

Apart from this, we also took multiple other attributes into account which improves the accuracy of our conversion rates, average basket size and average product price. Some of these include:

  • Annual traffic - Accounting for season-based, event-based, trend-based surges and country-based traffic.
  • Product category and subcategory - Example: Category - Apparel & Accessories. Subcategory - Menswear, womenswear.
  • Own brand site/Other retail brand sites/Marketplace. Example: Adidas has its own website, presence on ASOS and Amazon. Traffic and conversion rates on each site might be different. Physical presence contributes to a lift in online conversion.
  • Product quality: Luxury/ Affordable Luxury/ Premium/ Budget/ Discount. Example: Luxury women’s fashion, premium women’s fashion, and Budget women’s fashion all have different average basket sizes, and Average product prices.

There are several other variables at play. Impact of positive and negative reviews and their recency on sales, weather(!), holidays in a month, advertising budgets of an e-commerce company etc. are some more. The list is just vastly bigger but this should give you an idea.

fishbone

Our eCommerce revenue estimates have a 75-80% accuracy level when looked at as absolute numbers. When looked at as ‘revenue ranges’ they are 99% accurate. How do we know that? We tested. We checked our eCommerce revenue models with publicly available data and customers’ data. On a sample size of 200 ecommerce companies between $1M and $100M, the average deviation is less than $250K and the standard deviation is less than $1.2M.Online revenue is the starting point of several segmentation exercises you’d do in a year, as you execute your marketing programs and right segmentation is key to ensure that your marketing dollars are well spent. With PipeCandy, you can be sure that you have the best data in the market when it comes to eCommerce revenue. Here’s a quick glossary of all the terms:

  • Number of orders - Calculated based on traffic data and conversion rate
  • Number of orders = monthly visits * conversion rate
  • Average Order Value (AOV) - Estimated based on product category and subcategories
  • Online revenue - Estimated based on traffic data, product category and conversion rates
  • Online revenue = Monthly visits * Conversion rate * AOV
  • Average Basket size - Number of items sold in a single purchase

Want to know more about PipeCandy’s predictive analytical models that power account based marketing campaigns of top tech product companies? Talk to us.

Trusted by world's leading eCommerce enablers to research eCommerce companies and reach out to them
Get 30 mins free consultation with our research analyst.
Book Consultation
company-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logo
company-logo
awards-img
Be a Segmentation Superpower
eCommerce-specfic lead qualification criteria
Freedom from non-Commerce databases.
Predictable demand generation. Very precise segmentation & messaging.
Free Trial
A writer by day. Illustrator by night. Currently trying to conquer the B2B marketing world one baby step at a time. Loves everything outside her comfort zone.

Get PipeCandy essays straight to your inbox.

Every week we send out one deeply researched essay that captures the eCommerce industry and its evolution, right to your inbox. 50%+ open rates for a year now.
Trusted by 22,804 DTC & eCommerce industry insiders.

Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Prospector

The holy grail of predictable demand generation

Build surgically precise lead lists of your ideal eCommerce customers
Start Free Trial
Firehose

Closed lost? Not really.

Enrich your leads & engage again. Generate demand from your ignored CRM leads with right segmentation and messaging.
Start Free Trial
Researcher

The gold standard of eCommerce market size estimates

We hand-count & research every active eCommerce company. Know your true TAM.
Start Free Trial

Get PipeCandy essays straight to your inbox.

Every week we send out one deeply researched essay that captures the eCommerce industry and its evolution, right to your inbox. 50%+ open rates for a year now.
Trusted by 22,804 DTC & eCommerce industry insiders.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get PipeCandy essays straight to your inbox.

Every week we send out tidbits that capture the eCommerce industry and its evolution, right to your inbox. It's free. No spam. Choose to opt-out whenever.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
eCommerce-specfic lead qualification criteria
Freedom from non-Commerce databases.
Predictable demand generation. Very precise segmentation & messaging.
Free Trial
Be a Segmentation Superpower
eCommerce-specfic lead qualification criteria
Freedom from non-Commerce databases.
Predictable demand generation. Very precise segmentation & messaging.
Free Trial
A writer by day. Illustrator by night. Currently trying to conquer the B2B marketing world one baby step at a time. Loves everything outside her comfort zone.
A writer by day. Illustrator by night. Currently trying to conquer the B2B marketing world one baby step at a time. Loves everything outside her comfort zone.
hm.com
HQ Location: Beaverton, Oregon, United States Of America, 97005
hm.com, operated by H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB, is an internationally-focused online store that generates eCommerce net sales primarily in Germany as well as in the United States and the United Kingdom. With regards to the product range, hm.com achieves the greatest part of its eCommerce net sales in the “Fashion” category.
Web Sales
Order Volume
Commercepedia Maturity Score
Record Coverage
High
Category
Arts and Entertainment, Business and Consumer Services, Business and Industrial, Consumer Electronics, Health and Fitness
Sub Category
Arts and Entertainment, Business and Industrial, Office Supplies and Stationery, Technology and Computing
hm.com funding details
Total venture and debt funding raised by hm.com from accredited investors.
View full report
The most accurate online retailers dataset curated by algorithms & analysts
The most accurate online retailers dataset curated by algorithms & analysts
A writer by day. Illustrator by night. Currently trying to conquer the B2B marketing world one baby step at a time. Loves everything outside her comfort zone.
A writer by day. Illustrator by night. Currently trying to conquer the B2B marketing world one baby step at a time. Loves everything outside her comfort zone.
Trusted by world's leading eCommerce enablers to research eCommerce companies and reach out to them
Get 30 mins free consultation with our research analyst.
Book Consultation
company-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logo
company-logo
awards-img
Trusted by world's leading eCommerce enablers to research eCommerce companies and reach out to them
Get 30 mins free consultation with our research analyst.
Book Consultation
company-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logocompany-logo
company-logo
awards-img
Prospector
The holy grail of predictable demand generation
Build surgically precise lead lists of your ideal eCommerce customers
prospector-img
sm-logo
Firehose
Closed lost? Not really.
Enrich your leads & engage again. Generate demand from your ignored CRM leads with right segmentation and messaging.
firehose-img
sm-logo
Researcher
The gold standard of eCommerce market size estimates
We hand-count & research every active eCommerce company. Know your true TAM.
Researcher-img
State of the Direct-to-Consumer Industry in 2022
New
State of the Direct-to-Consumer Industry in 2022
The direct-to-consumer sector as we see today is far different from what it started off as about a decade ago. What we see about the DTC space today with data-driven research insights?
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
COVID Impact on US D2C brands
New
COVID Impact on US D2C brands
Which D2C categories thrive & which ones struggle due to COVID – a data-driven report
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
DTC Playbooks
New
DTC Playbooks
How do D2C brands think about growth. A perspective from early days of DTC
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Global eCommerce market size
New
Global eCommerce market size
Total addressable market size of eCommerce companies in the US and other major markets
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Subscription eCommerce industry report
New
Subscription eCommerce industry report
Total addressable market of subscription eCommerce companies
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Fashion industry & D2C fashion brands
New
Fashion industry & D2C fashion brands
How big is the fashion industry and how are the brands distributed by revenue?
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
More Reports
New
More Reports
Country-specific eCommerce TAM reports & white papers
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
State of the Direct-to-Consumer Industry in 2022
New
State of the Direct-to-Consumer Industry in 2022
The direct-to-consumer sector as we see today is far different from what it started off as about a decade ago. What we see about the DTC space today with data-driven research insights?
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
COVID Impact on US D2C brands
New
COVID Impact on US D2C brands
Which D2C categories thrive & which ones struggle due to COVID – a data-driven report
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
DTC Playbooks
New
DTC Playbooks
How do D2C brands think about growth. A perspective from early days of DTC
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Global eCommerce market size
New
Global eCommerce market size
Total addressable market size of eCommerce companies in the US and other major markets
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Subscription eCommerce industry report
New
Subscription eCommerce industry report
Total addressable market of subscription eCommerce companies
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Fashion industry & D2C fashion brands
New
Fashion industry & D2C fashion brands
How big is the fashion industry and how are the brands distributed by revenue?
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
More Reports
New
More Reports
Country-specific eCommerce TAM reports & white papers
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Prospector
The holy grail of predictable demand generation
Build surgically precise lead lists of your ideal eCommerce customers
Qualification Criteria
Technology Catogories
30 of 30 Catogories Selected
Website Technologies
6 of 1.5K Web Tech Selected
Product Category
Fashion & Apparel & 1K more
Product Sub Categories
Accessories, Babywear & 1k more
Web Traffic Rank
<1M, 1M-5M, 10M-25M & 9 more
Web Sales
<$1M, $1M-$5M, $10M... & 9 more
Countries
USA, Canada, UK & 192 more
States
California, Florida & 748 more
Customer Type
B2B, B2C, B2G, C2C
Physical Store
Choose Option
Own Brand
Choose Option
Business Tags
Subscription, DTC & & 500 more
Monthly Unique Visitors
$0 - $10B
Monthly Shipping Volume
<100, 100-500 & 5 more
Payment Partnerships
Alipay, Vantiv CNP & 2k more
Logistics Partnerships
UPS, FedEx, DHL & 2k more
Technology Catogories
Content Delivery
or
Content Management
or
CRM
or
Website Technologies
Azure Edge
or
CloudFront
or
Turn
or
DemDex
Apply Criteria
Let's Get Started!
Narrow down your keyword search using 'Commercepedia Keyword Search' on Top
Find a comprehensive list of eCommerce companies & DTC brands using 'Filters'
Powered by PipeCandy's Proprietary Online Merchant Graph!
Slice & Dice
D2C companies based on attributes made possible for the first time with Commercepedia
Advanced Search
This is some text inside of a div block.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Filter by Sub-categories
Reset All
314
314
314
314
314
Filter by Annual Revenue (USD)
110
410
124
45
15
HQ Location
15
15
15
15